Jan
21st
Sat
21st
Kentucky Derby 2012 contender update, Fair Grounds 1/21 selections
New contenders:
ECABRONI 2-1-1-0 32k (Castelloni-Pletcher) Won a MSW at Gulfstream 1/14/12
ECABRONI 2-1-1-0 32k (Castelloni-Pletcher) Won a MSW at Gulfstream 1/14/12
Z ROCKSTAR 6-1-2-2 $46 (Quinonez-von Hemel) 2nd in allowance race at Oaklawn, 1/16/12
ENTRIES:
APPLAUDING races in the Silverbulletday Stakes at Fair Grounds on 1/21
CONGENIAL is in a MSW at Fair Grounds, same card.
CANIGOTOO entered in the Groovy Stakes at Sam Houston on 1/21.
WAGER UPDATE:
Took a bit of a hit with my bankroll but not enough to keep me out of the game for this week. Did get 2 exactas and scored a few show bets in the process. I’ll be on limited wagers but hopefully will break even and get back to $0.
Reminding you that I will be entering all 3 pools of the KY Derby Futures come February 10…wagering $2 to win on 3 horses. I’ll be selecting 3 horses that may close at 10-1 or worse.
APPLAUDING races in the Silverbulletday Stakes at Fair Grounds on 1/21
CONGENIAL is in a MSW at Fair Grounds, same card.
CANIGOTOO entered in the Groovy Stakes at Sam Houston on 1/21.
WAGER UPDATE:
Took a bit of a hit with my bankroll but not enough to keep me out of the game for this week. Did get 2 exactas and scored a few show bets in the process. I’ll be on limited wagers but hopefully will break even and get back to $0.
Reminding you that I will be entering all 3 pools of the KY Derby Futures come February 10…wagering $2 to win on 3 horses. I’ll be selecting 3 horses that may close at 10-1 or worse.
Contenders:
AFFORD: 3-1-0-2 28k (Albarado/Geier)
AFRICANIST 5-1-2-1 52k (Leparoux/Kenneally)
APPLAUDING 2-2-0-0 49k (Sellers/Stall)
BRIDGEBURNER 5-2-1-0 81k (Stein-Howard)
CANIGOTOO 5-2-1-0 43k (MC Berry-Calhoun)
CONGENIAL 3-0-0-3 13k (Albarado/Stall)
CONSORTIUM 2-1-1-0 39k (JR Velazquez/McLaughlin)
AFFORD: 3-1-0-2 28k (Albarado/Geier)
AFRICANIST 5-1-2-1 52k (Leparoux/Kenneally)
APPLAUDING 2-2-0-0 49k (Sellers/Stall)
BRIDGEBURNER 5-2-1-0 81k (Stein-Howard)
CANIGOTOO 5-2-1-0 43k (MC Berry-Calhoun)
CONGENIAL 3-0-0-3 13k (Albarado/Stall)
CONSORTIUM 2-1-1-0 39k (JR Velazquez/McLaughlin)
CONSULADO 2-1-1-0 42k (Flores-Puype)
DA VINCI 3-1-0-0 19k (JR Velazquez/Pletcher)
DONE TALKING 5-2-0-2 80k (Garcia/Smith)
EVER SO LUCKY 2-1-1-0 61k (Leparoux/Sheppard)
FESTIVE SPIRIT 3-1-0-1 38k (C.Velazquez/Pletcher)
DA VINCI 3-1-0-0 19k (JR Velazquez/Pletcher)
DONE TALKING 5-2-0-2 80k (Garcia/Smith)
EVER SO LUCKY 2-1-1-0 61k (Leparoux/Sheppard)
FESTIVE SPIRIT 3-1-0-1 38k (C.Velazquez/Pletcher)
HARD FACTS 2-1-0-0 17k (Dunkelberger/Trombetta)
HOLDIN BULLETS 2-1-0-1 80k (Sanchez-Ward)
PAPA SID 2-1-0-1 22k (Riggs-Hubley)
HOLDIN BULLETS 2-1-0-1 80k (Sanchez-Ward)
PAPA SID 2-1-0-1 22k (Riggs-Hubley)
RACONTEUR 6-1-2-2 71k(C.Velasquez-Pletcher)
RAVELO’S BOY 11-2-0-2 55k (Sanchez/Azpurua)
REVERON 5-3-1-1 104k (Jara/Bezara)
ROCK HARDER 5-1-0-2 34k (Mena/Howard)
ROUSING SERMON 6-2-2-2 274k (Talamo/Hollendorfer)
SILVER MENACE 3-2-0-0 35k (Sanchez/Divito)
SPEIGHTSCITY 6-2-0-0 69k (Cohen-Contessa)
SUNS OUT GUNS OUT 3-0-0-1 5k (Lopez-Romans)
VEXOR 6-2-1-0 135k (Castellano-Kimmel)
RAVELO’S BOY 11-2-0-2 55k (Sanchez/Azpurua)
REVERON 5-3-1-1 104k (Jara/Bezara)
ROCK HARDER 5-1-0-2 34k (Mena/Howard)
ROUSING SERMON 6-2-2-2 274k (Talamo/Hollendorfer)
SILVER MENACE 3-2-0-0 35k (Sanchez/Divito)
SPEIGHTSCITY 6-2-0-0 69k (Cohen-Contessa)
SUNS OUT GUNS OUT 3-0-0-1 5k (Lopez-Romans)
VEXOR 6-2-1-0 135k (Castellano-Kimmel)
HANDICAPPING
Today my selections for 9 of the 13 races at Fair Grounds, 1/21, with a lot of stakes action, and 2 Graded stakes to get explicit with.
Race 6 is the Silverbulletday Stakes. Within the field of 6 I’m keying 2 horses.
Race 6 is the Silverbulletday Stakes. Within the field of 6 I’m keying 2 horses.
#2 Inny Minnie drops from a Graded stakes 2nd place finish. 11/19). Running in weaker company here and should threaten. The layoff of 2 months might help here. #6 Summer Applause won her first race other than maiden last time out, an optional claimer for $50k…Might bounce back down in speed since she did forge a new lifetime best. Still she has the best distance run of the 6 here.
For exacta I’d use these under favorites, along with these:
#1 Yvete Sangao is a morning-line longshot. She has the rail for this race, and has won her only other start from that position. Was 3rd in the race Inny Minnie ran at Delta Downs on 11/19.. She is the one dead closer in the field. She paired up to 2 lifetime best speed figures in last 2 races, which is usually a negative sign for me.
#4 Believe You Can I’m uncertain of for value (4-1 at ML) but should also contend for 2nd here. She is top class of the field, winning the Grade 3 Tempted Stakes in October. Should there be a wet track (likely given the weather report) she has possible advantage there too…having the only win on an off track in the field. Further she sports the top jockey-trainer combo in the field (Napravnik-Jones) That combo, in fact are 1-for-2 in the last 60 days with a modest ROI return of +2.50. Possible repeat of form coming off a long layoff.
I haven’t factored in my own KY contender APPLAUDING at all in the race. She is running like a champ for certain, never behind in the stretch in her 2 lifetime wins. Deservedly she is the clear ML fave. In this race I just don’t have much to go on to suggest further improvement. I take caution with horses who have won before on layoff making further attempts to repeat history. She does have much in her favor :Best speed figure at the track of these; best pace figure for her early-pressure style; best workout tab of these as well.
If odds work out to betting someone to show, and the track is dry I will certainly wager Believe You Can there. Applauding will certainly get a token show bet tho I don’t like to bridge-jump.
Summing up: Win: Inny Minnie, Summer Applause. Exacta: These two, plus Believe You Can, and Yvete Sangalo
***
For exacta I’d use these under favorites, along with these:
#1 Yvete Sangao is a morning-line longshot. She has the rail for this race, and has won her only other start from that position. Was 3rd in the race Inny Minnie ran at Delta Downs on 11/19.. She is the one dead closer in the field. She paired up to 2 lifetime best speed figures in last 2 races, which is usually a negative sign for me.
#4 Believe You Can I’m uncertain of for value (4-1 at ML) but should also contend for 2nd here. She is top class of the field, winning the Grade 3 Tempted Stakes in October. Should there be a wet track (likely given the weather report) she has possible advantage there too…having the only win on an off track in the field. Further she sports the top jockey-trainer combo in the field (Napravnik-Jones) That combo, in fact are 1-for-2 in the last 60 days with a modest ROI return of +2.50. Possible repeat of form coming off a long layoff.
I haven’t factored in my own KY contender APPLAUDING at all in the race. She is running like a champ for certain, never behind in the stretch in her 2 lifetime wins. Deservedly she is the clear ML fave. In this race I just don’t have much to go on to suggest further improvement. I take caution with horses who have won before on layoff making further attempts to repeat history. She does have much in her favor :Best speed figure at the track of these; best pace figure for her early-pressure style; best workout tab of these as well.
If odds work out to betting someone to show, and the track is dry I will certainly wager Believe You Can there. Applauding will certainly get a token show bet tho I don’t like to bridge-jump.
Summing up: Win: Inny Minnie, Summer Applause. Exacta: These two, plus Believe You Can, and Yvete Sangalo
***
Race 11 is the Grade 3 LeComte Stakes, 1-mile 70 yards for 3YOs.
This is a race where I like 5 horses for win and exacta…If the odds are low all around, I might forget the exacta and focus on win bets.
Both halves of the Gennadi Dorochenko entry are vialble: My choices are:
This is a race where I like 5 horses for win and exacta…If the odds are low all around, I might forget the exacta and focus on win bets.
Both halves of the Gennadi Dorochenko entry are vialble: My choices are:
1: Adena’s Choice (alternating sprint and route races, no works,
1A Hero Of Order (returns off 2 sprint races, possible bounce down in speed but hedging against this, no works, forged lifetime top last out)
1A Hero Of Order (returns off 2 sprint races, possible bounce down in speed but hedging against this, no works, forged lifetime top last out)
2B Z Dager (best in field on off track, could bounce from high speed figure)
7 Alexander Thegreat (another who forged a new lifetime best last out, could bounce)
9 Chalybeate Springs (2nd off layoff, no works, broke maiden last out)
I have 4 further contenders whom I might bet for show depending on how the odds go: #3,4,8,11 (Ted’s Folly…lone dead closer in the field, Mr. Bowling, Hammers Terror, Shared Property)
****
As for race 8, the MSW with CONGENIAL as the 2nd choice in the morning-line, I don’t think much of him in this race. Here are 2 horses I’m keying:
#4 Atlantic Titan: Could bounce from his increase in speed last race; jockey-trainer Mena-Flint are 2-for-2 in the money in the last 60 days, ROI of +9.60.
#8 Empire Taker: Another bounce candidate, changing to a better jockey this time.
As for race 8, the MSW with CONGENIAL as the 2nd choice in the morning-line, I don’t think much of him in this race. Here are 2 horses I’m keying:
#4 Atlantic Titan: Could bounce from his increase in speed last race; jockey-trainer Mena-Flint are 2-for-2 in the money in the last 60 days, ROI of +9.60.
#8 Empire Taker: Another bounce candidate, changing to a better jockey this time.
Also possible for win:
#5 Proper Empire: ML fave (yeesh).A good ‘explosive’ candidate, as he’s going slightly better than his lone 2YO effort at 3.
#5 Proper Empire: ML fave (yeesh).A good ‘explosive’ candidate, as he’s going slightly better than his lone 2YO effort at 3.
#7 Vperyod Springs: Sharp improvement in speed to lifetime best in last race, running wide then steadied and contended through finish. Turns back to a slighly lower distance and moves from turf to dirt here. Good possibility for an explosive effort here. Can’t believe he’s 20-1 at ML.
Possible for exacta (2nd position behind my picks and any faves):
#1 Donoharm: Led for about half of a mile-70 yard race last time out, gave way in stretch. Same track, same distance…might be same result but a lot closer this time.
#10 Julius Caesar: Also repeats distance, 3rd life start…failed as favorite last time, running fairly wide. Made only slight improvement in late stage. Big question mark but giving benefit of doubt.
#1 Donoharm: Led for about half of a mile-70 yard race last time out, gave way in stretch. Same track, same distance…might be same result but a lot closer this time.
#10 Julius Caesar: Also repeats distance, 3rd life start…failed as favorite last time, running fairly wide. Made only slight improvement in late stage. Big question mark but giving benefit of doubt.
I just don’t think much for #6: Congenial pairs up with high speed figures last 2 races and is likely to bounce from those. Wouldn’t surprise me if he finishes 3rd for 4th straight time.
Now for the selections (saddle #s):
race 3 win: 1/1A, 3,4,10
race 3 win: 1/1A, 3,4,10
race 4 win: 1 exacta: 1,2
race 5 win: 7,9,10 exacta: 1,2,4,6,7,9,10
race 6: win: 2,6 exacta: 1,2,4,6 *see above
race 7 win: 1,4,5 exacta: 1,4,6,5
race 8: win: 4,5,7,8 exacta: 1,4,8,10 *see above
race 10: win: 8,10 exacta 2,3,8,11,13
race 11: win: 1/1A„2B, 7, 9 exacta: 1/1A,2B, 7,9,11 *see above
race 13: win: 6,8 exacta: 6
race 5 win: 7,9,10 exacta: 1,2,4,6,7,9,10
race 6: win: 2,6 exacta: 1,2,4,6 *see above
race 7 win: 1,4,5 exacta: 1,4,6,5
race 8: win: 4,5,7,8 exacta: 1,4,8,10 *see above
race 10: win: 8,10 exacta 2,3,8,11,13
race 11: win: 1/1A„2B, 7, 9 exacta: 1/1A,2B, 7,9,11 *see above
race 13: win: 6,8 exacta: 6
