Jan
13th
Fri
13th
Kentucky Derby 2012 contender update
3 new contenders bring my list to 40. The Kentucky Derby nominations will
change this list to a degree.
change this list to a degree.
None of the horses listed have entries in race immediately.
Listed are horse name, starts-win-place-show, lifetime earnings, jockey-trainer based on last start.
New to the list:
CONSULADO 2-1-1-0 42k (Flores-Puype) won a MSW race at Santa Anita 1/7/12
HARD FACTS 2-1-0-0 17k (Dunkelberger/Trombetta)
won a MSW race at Charles Town 1/7/12
RACONTEUR 6-1-2-2 71k(C.Velasquez-Pletcher) won a MSW race at Aqueduct
1/6/12
Half of my contenders seem active…here they are:
AFFORD: 3-1-0-2 28k (Albarado/Geier)
AFRICANIST 5-1-2-1 52k (Leparoux/Kenneally)
(2nd in allow op claim 1/8)
APPLAUDING 2-2-0-0 49k (Sellers/Stall)
BRIDGEBURNER 5-2-1-0 81k (Stein-Howard)
CANIGOTOO 5-2-1-0 43k (MC Berry-Calhoun)
CONGENIAL 3-0-0-3 13k (Albarado/Stall)
CONSORTIUM 2-1-1-0 39k (JR Velazquez/McLaughlin)
DA VINCI 3-1-0-0 19k (JR Velazquez/Pletcher)
(6th in an allow op claim race 1/7)
DONE TALKING 5-2-0-2 80k (Garcia/Smith)
EVER SO LUCKY 2-1-1-0 61k (Leparoux/Sheppard)
FESTIVE SPIRIT 3-1-0-1 38k (C.Velazquez/Pletcher)
HOLDIN BULLETS 2-1-0-1 80k (Sanchez-Ward)
PAPA SID 2-1-0-1 22k (Riggs-Hubley)
RAVELO’S BOY 11-2-0-2 55k (Sanchez/Azpurua)
5th in Gulfstream Park Derby 1/1/12
REVERON 5-3-1-1 104k (Jara/Bezara)
Reveron won an exciting Gulfstream Park Derby 1/1/12. Watch it here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zflvb5IVJYk
ROCK HARDER 5-1-0-2 34k (Mena/Howard)
ROUSING SERMON 6-2-2-2 274k (Talamo/Hollendorfer)
SILVER MENACE 3-2-0-0 35k (Sanchez/Divito)
(6th in Gulfstream Park Derby 1/1/12)
SPEIGHTSCITY 6-2-0-0 69k (Cohen-Contessa)
(5th in Count Fleet Stakes 1/7/12)
SUNS OUT GUNS OUT 3-0-0-1 5k (Lopez-Romans)
VEXOR 6-2-1-0 135k (Castellano-Kimmel)
It’s been 2 months plus since any activity has been reported for the
following (works, races, and the like)
BIG BLUE NATION 2-1-0-1 60k (R.Dominquez-Pletcher)
BLACK RHINO 4-1-1-1 63k (J.Sanchez-Ward) CURRENCY SWAP 2-2-0-0 180k
(Maragh-MASTER CIP 0-0-0-0 0k
MR. STYLE 2-0-2-0 20k (JR Velazquez-Pletcher) NILE RUNNER 2-1-0-0 30k
(Carmouche/Zito)
POWER WORLD 5-1-2-0 93k (Prado-Howard)
RAINBOW’S BEST 3-1-0-0 38k (Campbell-Armata)
RESTITUTION 2-0-0-0 3k (Dominguez-Pletcher)
RIGHTFULLY SO 1-0-0-0 1k (C. Velasquez-Jerkens)
SARATOGA SNACKS 2-1-1-0 32k (R.Dominguez-Sciacca)
SPRING TO THE SKY 2-1-0-0 32k (Castellano-Brown)
WHERE’S JOHNSON 4-1-2-0 99k (Clark-Biamonte)
YON 2-1-1-0 37k (Spieth-Helmbrecht)
ZOW 3-2-0-0 81k (Trujillo-Pletcher)
Last week, one win and no exacta hits did not a winning week make.
This week I focus on Gulfstream Park and a couple of stakes races: The Hal’s Hope and The Fort Lauderdale. If I lose this week I’ll wait for February. If I win, we press on for next week.
This week I focus on Gulfstream Park and a couple of stakes races: The Hal’s Hope and The Fort Lauderdale. If I lose this week I’ll wait for February. If I win, we press on for next week.
In The Hal’s Hope Stakes (Grade 3) I am keying 2 horses: #2: Sky Venture is one of the longshots. A good jump in speed figure between the last 2 races (3rd at this track and last time out) and a few notches below lifetime best 4 races back (at the race’s mile distance at that) He’s an early-pressing type who hasn’t shown stamina to win enough longer races. Cutting back to the familiar one-mile distance should help.. #3 7YO Sangaree is a mid-priced horse, comes out of a Grade 1 race dated 11/26, finishing 6th. Similar run style in the past two, running wide but tired out tired last out instead of holding on.
I also like these in the 2nd exacta position under these and favorites:
#1 Jackson Bend is the ML favorite. Last run in the BC Sprint, running 3rd, and before that a lifetime best speed figure in the Kelso, finishing 2nd. 4th straight Graded race. Has won before off layoff, and also was reclaimed by trainer Nick Zito along with that layoff.
#9 another longshot, Will’s Wildcat last raced in the Grade 1 Clark Handicap, and is another horse who contended early but faded at the stretch. I’m looking for a bounce back considering layoff and lowering in distance.
I also like these in the 2nd exacta position under these and favorites:
#1 Jackson Bend is the ML favorite. Last run in the BC Sprint, running 3rd, and before that a lifetime best speed figure in the Kelso, finishing 2nd. 4th straight Graded race. Has won before off layoff, and also was reclaimed by trainer Nick Zito along with that layoff.
#9 another longshot, Will’s Wildcat last raced in the Grade 1 Clark Handicap, and is another horse who contended early but faded at the stretch. I’m looking for a bounce back considering layoff and lowering in distance.
Turning to race 9 and the Ft. Lauderdale….here’s the case of liking just 1 horse to win, and the majority of horses in this 14 horse field underneath, tho using favorites on top with some.
The key horse for me is #4, eight-year-old Yummy With Butter. Moved up in speed figure between last 2 races…a 7th place finish in a Grade 3 race, then a layoff, then 4th in an allowance race. His trainer, Yvon Belsouer has a 2011 record of 2 wins in 4 graded stakes, with an ROI of 4.50. Seeing that the 6f allowance race was a decent prep for this event, along with the improvement in speed figure, this one could surprise. I do mean ‘surprise’ as he is 10-1 at ML.
The key horse for me is #4, eight-year-old Yummy With Butter. Moved up in speed figure between last 2 races…a 7th place finish in a Grade 3 race, then a layoff, then 4th in an allowance race. His trainer, Yvon Belsouer has a 2011 record of 2 wins in 4 graded stakes, with an ROI of 4.50. Seeing that the 6f allowance race was a decent prep for this event, along with the improvement in speed figure, this one could surprise. I do mean ‘surprise’ as he is 10-1 at ML.
Here’s all the others that I believe can finish 2nd.
#2 Santiva dueled well in an allowance race after a long layoff from the Triple Crown races. The improvement in speed figure is a good telling indicator.
#2 Santiva dueled well in an allowance race after a long layoff from the Triple Crown races. The improvement in speed figure is a good telling indicator.
#5 Mutual Trust makes his US debut after 5 races in France…had won his first 4 races, then finished 10th in a top-graded event last time.
#7 Teaks North was 8th in the BC Turf, and is off a 2 month layoff. He has won before off layoff (last year’s Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap) Trainer Justin Sallusto with 2 interesting angles here….is 5-for-11 in-the-money in races where his horses were 46-90 days off the track (2.78 ROI). Also, 3-for-13 winning graded stakes, 5 times in-the-money in the these, (4.17 ROI)
#8 Flat Out was 3rd in the Clark Handicap last time, and is racing on a near 2-month layoff since.
#11 Hoofit last raced in the BC Turf Sprint, and has won off layoff in the past. Jockey-trainer connection Prado-Motion have won 2 races, and are 3 times in money together in last 60 days, with 2.72 ROI.
#13 If the track is on the main track instead (most likely it won’t given the weather), Cool Blue Red Hot also has a chance here. Also runs on a layoff (3 months). Jockey-trainer combo Cruz-Penna Jr. were in the money in 2 races together in the last 60 days, for an ROI of 5.10.
I didn’t forget the rest of the card..will have info on this tomorrow.
#7 Teaks North was 8th in the BC Turf, and is off a 2 month layoff. He has won before off layoff (last year’s Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap) Trainer Justin Sallusto with 2 interesting angles here….is 5-for-11 in-the-money in races where his horses were 46-90 days off the track (2.78 ROI). Also, 3-for-13 winning graded stakes, 5 times in-the-money in the these, (4.17 ROI)
#8 Flat Out was 3rd in the Clark Handicap last time, and is racing on a near 2-month layoff since.
#11 Hoofit last raced in the BC Turf Sprint, and has won off layoff in the past. Jockey-trainer connection Prado-Motion have won 2 races, and are 3 times in money together in last 60 days, with 2.72 ROI.
#13 If the track is on the main track instead (most likely it won’t given the weather), Cool Blue Red Hot also has a chance here. Also runs on a layoff (3 months). Jockey-trainer combo Cruz-Penna Jr. were in the money in 2 races together in the last 60 days, for an ROI of 5.10.
I didn’t forget the rest of the card..will have info on this tomorrow.
