Jan
9th
Mon
9th
my mythical baseball hall of fame ballot
Time to look at this year’s HOF ballot to see if I can pick a few winners. Most experts expect one, and only one, name to pass muster and join Ron Santo. Santo was not in my consideration for the Golden Era; Kaat and Tiant were much more HOF-worthy than Santo, but it’s still a good story.
What I did was take cues from www.baseball-reference.com and list the top 10 of players on the ballot in the 4 categories: black ink (leading league); gray ink (top 10 in a stat), HOF Monitor and HOF Standards (these are Bill James’s creations). I also checked out how many seasons each player were credited as having a HOF career in comparison (more number of years with top match as an HOF player, the better). Then I looked at the players whose lifetime stats matched more comparable HOF players than others. Top 10 were included in the 6 categories, including ties. The 10 players with the most appearances in the top 10 withn these 6 categories (6 out of 6 a perfect score) would be part of my mythical HOF vote.
Here’s how they rank, from best to worst
No doubters (6 out of 6):
Larry Walker
Mark McGwire
What I did was take cues from www.baseball-reference.com and list the top 10 of players on the ballot in the 4 categories: black ink (leading league); gray ink (top 10 in a stat), HOF Monitor and HOF Standards (these are Bill James’s creations). I also checked out how many seasons each player were credited as having a HOF career in comparison (more number of years with top match as an HOF player, the better). Then I looked at the players whose lifetime stats matched more comparable HOF players than others. Top 10 were included in the 6 categories, including ties. The 10 players with the most appearances in the top 10 withn these 6 categories (6 out of 6 a perfect score) would be part of my mythical HOF vote.
Here’s how they rank, from best to worst
No doubters (6 out of 6):
Larry Walker
Mark McGwire
Juan Gonzalez
You’d be foolish to leave these out (5 out of 6):
Jeff Bagwell
Jack Morris
Rafael Palmeiro
Tim Raines
Edgar Martinez
In but not by much (4 out of 6)
Dale Murphy
Lee Smith
Out but on the doorstep: (3 out of 6)
Barry Larkin
Fred McGriff
Don Mattingly
Out, way out (2 out of 6)
Bernie Williams
Javy Lopez
Alan Trammell
The other 11 don’t even register a shot.
For a few years I’ve consider Donnie Baseball to be the HOF bellwether. Any player with comparable ranks in the 6 categories better than he should be in. Murphy ranks better than Mattingly for certain, but Larkin is about equivalent, while the Crime Dog has a slight edge over both.
Here are ghe cutoff numbers used in each category, for those keeping score at home. Any player reaching this threshold or better gets some HOF consideration, based on the strength of the class:
Black Ink: 12
Grey Ink: 105
HOF Monitor: 120
HOF Standards: 40
Most comparable # of players of lifetime stats in HOF: 2
Most comparable # of seasons with HOF as top match per age: 2
You’d be foolish to leave these out (5 out of 6):
Jeff Bagwell
Jack Morris
Rafael Palmeiro
Tim Raines
Edgar Martinez
In but not by much (4 out of 6)
Dale Murphy
Lee Smith
Out but on the doorstep: (3 out of 6)
Barry Larkin
Fred McGriff
Don Mattingly
Out, way out (2 out of 6)
Bernie Williams
Javy Lopez
Alan Trammell
The other 11 don’t even register a shot.
For a few years I’ve consider Donnie Baseball to be the HOF bellwether. Any player with comparable ranks in the 6 categories better than he should be in. Murphy ranks better than Mattingly for certain, but Larkin is about equivalent, while the Crime Dog has a slight edge over both.
Here are ghe cutoff numbers used in each category, for those keeping score at home. Any player reaching this threshold or better gets some HOF consideration, based on the strength of the class:
Black Ink: 12
Grey Ink: 105
HOF Monitor: 120
HOF Standards: 40
Most comparable # of players of lifetime stats in HOF: 2
Most comparable # of seasons with HOF as top match per age: 2
