Dec
22nd
Thu
22nd
Kentucky Derby 2012 contender update:
Returning to the KY Derby 2012 blog series here with an updated list of my contenders. If you’re new to this, I regularly examine the Wynn Las Vegas sportsbook to see the odds on next year’s runners and who are officially up for betting. Not that I will bet this early, mind you. You’ll recall my last minute $2 win bet on Animal Kingdom in Pool 3 in early April! In 2012, I just might bet the first 2 pools to see how I do.
Meanwhile….the lists below indicated the contenders I originally picked along with new contenders to the sportsbook, with current Vegas odds, starts plus W-P-S results and $ earned, then jockey/trainer combo. These are entered in alpha order. I chose these contenders based on comparative chef-de-race numbers that best fit
winners at Churchill Downs: www.chef-de-race.com and www.pedigreequery.com are my sources.
BIG BLUE NATION 75-1 2-0-1-1 60k (R.Dominquez-Pletcher)
winners at Churchill Downs: www.chef-de-race.com and www.pedigreequery.com are my sources.
BIG BLUE NATION 75-1 2-0-1-1 60k (R.Dominquez-Pletcher)
BLACK RHINO 250-1 4-1-1-1 63k (J.Sanchez-Ward)
BORN TO SEA: 200-1 2-1-1-0 26k
CANIGOTOO 500-1 5-2-1-0 43k (MC Berry-Calhoun)
CURRENCY SWAP 2-2-0-0 180k (Maragh-Pompay)
MR. STYLE 175-1 2-0-2-0 20k (JR Velazquez-Pletcher)
PAPA SID 500-1 2-1-0-1 22k (Riggs-Hubley)
POWER WORLD 250-1 5-1-2-0 93k (Prado-Howard)
RAINBOW’S BEST 325-1 3-1-0-0 38k (Campbell-Armada)
RESTITUTION 325-1 2-0-0-0 3k (Domingue-Pletcher)
RIGHTFULLY SO 275-1 1-0-0-0 1k (C. Velasquez-Jerkens)
SARATOGA SNACKS 200-1 2-1-1-0 32k (R.Dominguez-Sciacca)
SPEIGHTSCITY 250-1 5-2-0-0 65k (Cohen-Contessa)
SPRING TO THE SKY 350-1 2-1-0-0 32k (Castellano-Brown)
SUNS 250-1 2-0-0-0 1k (Lanerie-Romans)
VEXOR 500-1 6-2-1-0 135k (Castellano-Kimmel)
WHERE’S JOHNSON 500-1 4-1-2-0 99k (Clark-Biamonte)
ZOW 300-1 3-2-0-0 81k (Trujillo-Pletcher)
YON 275-1 2-1-1-0 37k (Spieth-Helmbrecht)
VEXOR had won the Grade 2 Nashua
CURRENCY SWAP won the Grade 1 Hopeful.
NEW CONTENDERS (12/21) since the last update:
AFFORD:225-1 3-1-0-2 28k (Albarado/Geier) 3rd in the Sugar Bowl Stakes (Fair Grounds) 12/17
AFRICANIST 200-1 4-1-1-1 44k (Lanerie/Kenneally) 6th in G2 KY Jockey Club Stakes at CD 11/26 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G49Qb3NnYgY
AFFORD:225-1 3-1-0-2 28k (Albarado/Geier) 3rd in the Sugar Bowl Stakes (Fair Grounds) 12/17
AFRICANIST 200-1 4-1-1-1 44k (Lanerie/Kenneally) 6th in G2 KY Jockey Club Stakes at CD 11/26 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G49Qb3NnYgY
APPLAUDING150-1 2-2-0-0 54k (Sellers/Stall) FL bred. (MSW and allowance op claim wins at FG and Keeneland) Watch his dazzling effort at Keeneland as he breaks a track record: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLV4RHwfA9Y
BRIDGEBURNER 300-1 5-2-1-0 81k (Stein/Howard) FL bred. 8th in Display Stakes 11/27 at Woodbine
CONGENIAL 250-1 3-0-0-3 13k (Albarado/Stall) 2 3rd place finishes in MSWs (FG, CD)
CONSORTIUM 35-1 2-1-1-0 39k (JR Velazquez/McLaughlin) (won MSW, 2nd in allowance)
DA VINCI 100-1 2-1-0-0 19k (Saez/Pletcher) won MSW at Calder 11/26
DONE TALKING 200-1 5-2-0-2 80k (Garcia/Smith) (4th in G2 Remsen) Watch the Remsen here which has an exciting stretch run: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbaCJHaYFGE
EVER SO LUCKY 24-1 2-1-1-0 61k (Leparoux/Sheppard) 2nd in G2 KY Jockey Club Stakes, also winner in MSW
FESTIVE SPIRIT 250-1 3-1-0-1 38k (C.Velazquez/Pletcher) 3rd last out in allowance at Aqueduct, 12/15
HOLDIN BULLETS 225-1 2-1-0-1 80k (Sanchez/Ward) 3rd in BC Juvenile Sprint http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hIZOLnotE4
MASTER CIP 100-1
MY MISS AURELIA 100-1 4-4-0-0 1380k (Nakatani/Asmussen) (see below)
NILE RUNNER 225-1 2-1-0-0 30k (Carmouche/Zito) won MSW race 10/30 at Parx
RAVELO’S BOY 300-1 10-2-0-2 52k (Sanchez/Azpurua) 2 allowance races, 1 win last out at Gulfstream, 12/3
REVERON 250-1 4-2-1-1 27k (Jara/Bezara) Both wins at Calder, last an allowance race 11/26.
ROCK HARDER 125-1 4-1-0-1 30k (Mena/Howard) MSW win at FG 11/27
ROUSING SERMON 20-1 6-2-2-2 274k (Talamo/Hollendorfer) CA bred. 2nd in CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park. 12/17 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CUUHpXdamI
SILVER MENACE 250-1 2-2-0-0 33k (Sanchez/Divito) Maiden Claiming and allowance op claim wins at Arlington Park and Hawthorne.
Terribly excited here about My Miss Aurelia who is the one horse on either list to win multiple graded stakes races. Winner of a MSW race at Saratoga, then the Adirondack Stakes there, then the Frizette at Belmont, then the BC Juvenile Fillies at CD.
Maiden race : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdU8SiCo_bM
Maiden race : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdU8SiCo_bM
Adirondack: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Ismo80k3As
ENTRIES
Da Vinci runs an allowance race at Gulfstream 12/26
WAGER UPDATE
Newer system is holding out OK. Made out like a bandit in this year’s Breeders Cup if you followed the picks. I am currently keeping focus on win and exacta bets, plus occasional show bets)
Newer system is holding out OK. Made out like a bandit in this year’s Breeders Cup if you followed the picks. I am currently keeping focus on win and exacta bets, plus occasional show bets)
Plan for now is to wager almost weekly, limiting loss per card to $50, and $100 per month. I’m also getting more integral about keeping profits firmly in check, banking every $50 in the black.
Next full card I wager will be first weekend of 2012.
I intend to keep the focus on the KY Derby hopefuls until the early nominations, in which time I will only consider those nominated. Then the real fun begins as I compare those horses to the ones I have selected above.
I will next post upon the next sportsbook update which is roughly every 5 to 7 days.
Next full card I wager will be first weekend of 2012.
I intend to keep the focus on the KY Derby hopefuls until the early nominations, in which time I will only consider those nominated. Then the real fun begins as I compare those horses to the ones I have selected above.
I will next post upon the next sportsbook update which is roughly every 5 to 7 days.
