3rd
Breeders Cup 10/4/11 race analyses
Time to get focused on this year’s Breeders Cup races, all 15 (!) of them. I’ve tweaked my 2 systems a bit, using primary and composite pairs of variables to come up with some interesting ways to look at pace and form. Borrowing ideas from author Dave Litfin’s material and my own weather-beaten ideas, here’s my analysis of the 6 races on Friday making up day 1 of the events:
JUVENILE SPRINT: 1 Seeker is one of 4 horses coming up a Graded stakes event to run in the officially ungraded yet highly valued (500k) race. I generally view this move as a positive, enough to make Seeker one of my top contenders. 2 Sum Of The Parts is bounce-worthy, a variable in itself I do consider a positive as well. He ran 11 points higher of a Brisnet number in the Kip Deville than in the Sapling, and is an early-speedster. 4 Trinniberg carries several variables…..also bounceworthy, also ran in the Nashua last out, good ROI of 5.25 (jockey Cornelio Velazquez and trainer Bisnath Parboo with 2 wins in 4 races, all 4 in the money, last 60 days). Also, Trinniberg had a narrow lead throughout in the Nashua, losing lead but dueling in the stretch to the winner, Vexor. Dueling horses are a good positive mark. The combination of a ROI/Duel horse from my research suggests a must include for exactas. Not for win tho in this case. 5 Shumoos drops from a UK Grade 1 race and makes his first US start. This year, Brian Meehan is 1-1 on US shippers. Too intriguing to leave out. 9 Speaking of Vexor, this horse is on the outside, also bounce worthy (early speed type, strong pace gain between last 2 races…Hopeful and Nashua). Summary:
Win bets on 1, 2: Seeker and Sum Of the Parts, the latter with a ML of 15/1 likely to be the one I stick with for win.
Exactas covering 1,2,4,5,9. 2,5 have low ML odds. Sneaky value here. ************************* JUVENILE FILLIES TURF::
With 14 horses here (16 with the also-entered), there happen to be too many horses I’ve qualified for win or exacta. 8 of these horses have positive angles to be either win or exacta and these are the ones that I will consider:
3 Up, longshot, 2 races in Ireland, no workouts reported since these. 4 Stopshoppingmaria drops from the Grade 1 Frizette (2nd place finish) to Friday’s Grade 2 race. 7 Royal Bonnie a bounce candidate…improved by 10 from her maiden effort to the Miss Grillo (G3) stakes last out 8 Hard Not To Like could bounce here..strong effort winning the Cup & Saucer stakes last time out, forging a new career speed figure via Brisnet. 9 Pure Gossip also ran the Miss Grillo, also could bounce downward. Trainer Philip Serpe with good ROI of 3.28 in this year’s graded events. 11 Ann Of The Dance forged a new career high despite finishing 9th last time. Pair of strong Brisnet numbers in last two.
Each of these horses are ML longshots. I might play each of these to win and under 1 or 2 faves. 16 (AE) Karlovy Vary is yet another longshot. Possibly bouncer, moved up in Brisnet score between 2 maiden efforts.
LOTS of value in this race.
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FILLY & MARE SPRINT:
Just 2 horses fit who I will go with, both are longshots:
10: Tamarind Hall improved in pace beween last 2 races both G1 and G2 events. Trainer Jeremiah Englehart is 3 of 3 in the money (with 1 win) on graded stakes this year, ROI of 9.27.
2: Great Hot has no workouts since last race on 10/22 at Keeneland. Forged a career best in the race prior to that one, the G1 Lady Secret on 10/1.
Probably a win bet with 10, exacta using favorites over 2, and 10-2 of course.
Great value here.
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JUVENILE FILLIES
Similar to the Juvenile Sprint, a few good horses to consider for winning, a bunch underneath:
1 Questing I like for win and exacta…Comment section for her run at Newmarket (UK) suggests she held well in a 2nd place finish…Jockey and trainer both have good ROI numbers. Also no reported works since the Newmarket race 9/23.
8 Homecoming Queen has no reported works since last Irish race dated 10/9.
11 Weemissfrankie with 2 G1 races last time out might bounce downward. 7 Putthebabiesdown appears headed for a bounce, not sure. Gained a bit in stretch in last race then weakened. Forged a new top in that race as well. 2 Candrea dueled and lost in stretch in last race. Pair up of strong speed figures in last two. 3 Rocket Twentyone could bounce in this race. Great ROI from both jockey and trainer Comes off layoff; winner of 2 lifetime starts. 10 Northern Passion is a bounce candidate as well… also coming off layoff. 11, 1, 8 best for win.
These plus 7, 2, 3, 10 best for exactas. Good value in general here.
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FILLY & MARE TURK
Another race where about half the field qualifies. I like these:
5, 6 & 12, Nahrain, Announce and Misty For Me each have no works reported.
8 Perfect Shirl and 9 Shared Account both could bounce off their Brisnet numbers. #8’s jockey and trainer combo have gone 1 for 4 in races in the last 60, but ROI of 4.32.
Also considering #11, Dynaslew…good ROI with jockey/trainer in last 60 days, strong pair of Brisnet numbers in last 2 races, pushed slightly past her 4YO best pace number which also is her career best.
5, 6, 8. 9, 12 all to consider for win/exacta, and 11 for win only. ML odds suggest that value will be less for 5 and 6.
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LADIES CLASSIC
#3, It’s Tricky, could bounce from her prior race, off a 2nd place finish in a G2 race on 10/1.
#8 Plum Pretty, ML fave, defeated It’s Tricky in that very race, wiring the field in fact. Also comes off career best Brisnet number.
Not much value between the 2 horses and probably the weakest of the races for a wagering angle thus far, but 3 and 8 are the two I like for win and exacta.
I won’t wager horses to win for anything less than 6-1, and certainly will avoid chalk in both halves of an exacta.
My older system I’ve relegated to saving possible horses for across the board and show parlays. Unlike prior efforts, I will be much more selective, watching the odds to see who is gaining in value. Early Friday morning, I’ll give you my take on selections for the remaining 9 BC races. Once I learn of scratches and changes, I’ll show off the wagers I am very likely to make. Follow me on Twitter at @radiocblue to see those wagers.
