15th
Keeneland 75th Anni Stakes analysis
While I tweak a new wagering line, a look at 2YO hopefuls in this stakes race. One of them is one of my KY Derby ‘12 contenders, Canigotoo.
#1 D’Wildcat Road is one of 4 horses to excel in their general post position area. Trainer John Dyer has 7.91 ROI on all-weather surfaces this year. This sprinter possibly could bounce, having run an 85 after a 67 Equibase speed rating.
#2 Canigotoo also benefits from his inside post. Went from a 77 to 87 number in last race, while losing that race only in the stretch.
#3 Italo won his debut race in France, a 33k handicap. This is 2nd US start. Has 4 works since last race, last 2 at Keeneland, 1 fast. Comes out of the Grade 2 Saratoga Special.
#4 Norm’s Passion looks like a bounce candidate,..increase in speed in his 2nd lifetime start, both in the 90’s.
#5 Sheriff Silverstar turns back and switches distance, running a mile on the grass last time, today is on the all-weather, 6f.
#6 Luke Of York has the best winning speed at 6f+ of this field, his lone start. That race at Arlington Park was also contested on the synthetic.
#7: Sarge Hudson also doing the turnback in distance and switch from grass. He fared well in an outside post in his prior win.
#8 Voodoo Daddy I have no real angle to give both pro or con for his chances.
#9: Larry Zip has best wiinning speed at Keeneland of these. Also fastest of those running to his type..he’s a dead closer. Also won previous with an outside post.
Has the capacity to bounce here. Also doing distance and surface switch.
Open race for win between 1, 2, 6, 7, 9. Exacta 2nd and 3rd position could go to 1, 2, 7. 3, 4, 8 could factor based on form.
1 D’Wildcat Road over 2 Canigotoo seem to be the consensus pick between my several systems. My bias to #1 here over #2. Horses losing in duels in stretch in pror race often run well but usually for 2nd best.
