14th
Kentucky Derby ‘12 contender update
Howdy! In what’s becoming a dedicated weekly update, here’s a roundup of who my contenders are as selected on 9/17/11, with current Vegas odds, starts plus W-P-S results and $ earned. These are entered in alpha order. I chose these contenders based on comparative chef-de-race numbers that best fit winners at Chirchill Downs:
BIG BLUE NATION 100-1 2-1-0-1 $60k
BLACK RHINO 250-1 4-1-1-1 $63k
CANIGOTOO 500-1 3-1-1-0 $25k
CURRENCY SWAP 75-1: 2-2-0-0 $180k (tops on this list)
MR. STYLE 175-1: 2-0-2-0 $20k
PAPA SID 500-1: 2-1-0-1 $22k
POWER WORLD 250-1: 5-1-2-0 $93k
RAINBOW’S BEST 325-1 3-1-0-0 $38k
RIGHTFULLY SO 275-1: 1-0-0-0 $1k
SARATOGA SNACKS 325-1 2-1-1-0 $32k
SPEIGHTSCITY 250-1: 2-1-0-0 $32
SUNS OUT GUNS OUT 350-1: 1-0-0-0 $0k
TRITAP 225-1: 2-0-1-0 $11
VEXOR 350-1 4-2-1-0 $133
WHERE’S JOHNSON 500-1: 4-1-2-0 $99k
ZOW 300-1 3-2-0-0 $81k YON 275-1 2-1-1-0 $37k
since added: SPRING TO THE SKY 300-1 1-1-0-0 $30k
RESTITUTION 325-1 1-0-0-0 $1k SISTER MOON (f) 125-1
NEW CONTENDER, bringing our count to 21:
BORN TO SEA: (IRE) 200-1, winner of the graded Blenheim Stakes in his first start, a 6f effort at Curragh. 1-0-0-0 26k euro. Here’s a look at part of this impressive win through traffic in the Curragh stretch: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DYgru8L1Ko
I first found the Wynn Las Vegas odds through Jennie Rees, who blogs all things horse racing for the (Louisville, KY area)
Courier-Journal, and I reference the odds reposting here: http://blogs.courier-journal.com/racing/2011/09/26/hansen-joins-favorites-for-2012-kentucky-derby-at-wynn-las-vegas/
WORKOUTS since the last blog post:
CURRENCY SWAP 5f Monmouth, 2nd of 9, 1:00
RAINBOW’S BEST 5f Woodbine, 16th of 59, 1:01.8
SARATOGA SNACKS 5f Belmont, 3rd of 16, 1:00.9
SUNS OUT GUNS OUT 4f Churchill, 26th of 64, 50.4. not good.
TRITAP 5f Churchill, 12th of 33, 1:02 YON: 4f Turfway, 3rd of 6 51.8
SPRING TO THE SKY 4f Belmont, 49th of 59. 10/8
SISTER MOON 5f at Santa Anita, 59.8, 9th of 76.(nice!)
RACE RESULTS OF CONTENDERS
POWER WORLD finished a disappointing 7th 10/8 at Belmont’s Champagne Stakes. SPEIGHTSCITY was an early scratch. SUNS OUT GUNS OUT was entered in a MSW race at Keeneland 10/13, finished 9th.
WHERE’S JOHNSON 5th in an allowance race at Woodbine 10/12
ENTRIES CANIGOTOO entered 10/15 Keeneland race 8, the 75th Anniversary Stakes. Yes, I’ll profile that race for you all along with the Belmont card.
WAGER UPDATE
I’m changing my game, because my game is changing on me. I’ve evaluated an old system, testing it for win/place/show placements, and it looks like my top-4 thing isn’t working out at all. I can still get a number of contenders, a good amount of wins spotted, but I have to check each variable and isolate them now to see which ones to use on its own merit or pair with another. I’m about 25% complete through this research, which I aim to have done this time next week.
Essentially I will use my newer system to focus on wins and exactas, conditionally betting the race if I see good form/speed trends in a race. Otherwise, I will revamp hthe older system to focus on across-the-board and show parlays. Once I identify best in-money horse trends, this will go into action.
Obviously not every race is bettable to show. I look at situations in which I can confidently select horses 4-1 or worse in the top 2 positions; otherwise I look at races where one horse is a favorite. The across-the-board angle might be played with horses that have the best rank across all variables I may be using. Not sure about that one yet.
Part way into my research, the horses I highlight for an off track, plus those with an advantageous post position seem to be doing well. Surprisingly the jockey/trainer angle isn’t working that well at all. Again, I’m in the preliiminary stage with these results.
I’ll say this much… the Dave Liftin book “Expert Handicapping” I bought for a song 2 years ago is starting to make much more sense; I’m being more judicial and structured with my wagering and, some of the major factors introduced are starting to look like winners.
Last Saturday at Belmont, playing only mythical wagers, I hit 3 exactas, but no wins. Basically I broke even. I’m happy to do so at the least. The challenging part right now is making a consensus series of win/exacta picks, because a small negative can easily create a bias that I might ignore anyway with enough positives. Still needs work tho!
I’m doing a small test of this on Friday’s Belmont card, and will publicize my Saturday selections, tho I will no longer do my top-4 selections, just the possible wagers.
I’m not wagering real $ until Breaders Cup weekend.
