dan herman's stat blog. RSS

Proud to be Tumblrblog number one one one zero two two. Beyond my work in internet radio/podcast, I have an assortment of outside interests. These include horse racing, youtube videos, photos of events I attend, audio feeds from my radio show and field recordings) and more. Mainly I'd like to focus on scientific explanations of events through biorhythms and other formulas. Biorhythms measure potential in various life-cycles. All charts generated through the free service by www.facade.com cblue456@optonline.net

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Nov
11th
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Pacquiao v. Cotto via biorhythms

Miguel Cotto 10/29/80 defends his WBO welterweight title against the reputed pound-for-pound top boxer, Manny Pacquiao 12/17/78. The fight is on 11/14/09


Cotto’s primary chart reads this way:
Miguel Cotto chart

Looking at strong physical peak potential for Miguel, and still will make good choices on what punches to throw, but not with a good attitude or drive.
Secondary charts color in the story:

His motivation to get into his opponent as the fight wears on is good and getting better. His pure athletic ability is about as good as it can be. His decision making will be suspect tho and might lead to a lot of parrys and blows that go nowhere. But he won’t go down easy for certain.

Now for Pacquiao:

Interesting contrast to Cotto…..relatively weak physically but mentally in a good state of mind, and his confidence better…brains over brawn.
Secondary:

Manny will be able to make the right shots at the right time, but will they make much of an impact? Not much given his very weak physical state. I don’t see him quite motivated to go the long distance….might be frustrated later.

Putting it all together: When it comes down to it, we have a good contrast of cycles, and no real trend giving one boxer an advantage. But, in boxing, you have to have the physical strength and the tactical know-how. Cotto easily outranks Manny in this dept. and that will be the main difference giving him a unanimous decision on 11/14.

Charts generated through www.facade.com/biorhythm

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Nov
9th
Mon
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Nov
2nd
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Oct
28th
Wed
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Danger Factor analysis on Yankee batters for 2009

Danger Factor, my own formula, combines the inverse properties of Bill James’s Isolated Power stat, combined with the ability of a batter’s ability to put the ball in play, creating a contact average.  The combined factor provide a gauge for seeing who are free swngers, who are singles and power hitters, and who have the best overall ability when it comes to batter v. pitcher.
Here’s how I rank the hitters via the DGR, best to worst:
Cano
Texeira
Matsui
Swisher
Damon
Hairston
Cabrera
A-Rod
Posada
Cervelli
Jeter
Gardner
Molina
Guzman

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NY Yankees 2009 World Series biorhythm analysis

Player-by-player analysis of the Yankees’ potential to acheive in this year’s Fall Classic:
Pitchers:
Alfredo Aceves is operating negatively emotionally and mentally and will be for entire series. Probably count upon for an inning or 2 when needed but that’s about it.

AJ Burnett is on triple high physical/emo/mental and will remain this way for entire series. Count on him with all confidence.

Joba Chamberlain’s physicality and mental capacities will be negative this series. Can’t question his emotions but will not be enough for him to perform well. Too much volatility overall to rely upon.

Phil Coke can be relied upon for his physical skills and will get stronger as we get deeper into the series. Athletic ability and focus will be strong throughout….in fact best for games 6 and 7. Not so for Games 1 or 2

Chad Gaudin will be Jeckyll/Hyde and trade strengths of his cycles throughout the series. Decision making will be his best asset. Best used early in series..games 1 and 2.

Phil Hughes will not handle emotions well this series. Deeper into series he will be physically stronger but will make his share of mistakes. Decision making poor.

Damaso Marte will perform very well physically and mentally, but will have issue with rapport and chemistry. Best asset through series is his athleticism and focus and will be strong there through series. ..best late in series…games 6 and 7.

Andy Pettite will be very sharp if used in games 1 or 2..after that, totally different and will be triple negative. Not recommend for starting in games 6 or 7.

Mo Rivera: Mo will not be himself this series….very prone to being predictable and not make good decisions on the mound. Other cycles are stronger deeper into series but overall not a good outlook.

David Robertson will have cycle changes throughout series. He will be able to grind out tough outs tho and probably best in games 3-4-5.

CC Sabathia: Starts series triple negative, and will be triple positive by game 7. All depends on what games he starts.

CATCHERS:
Francisco Cervelli will be negative physically and mentally throughout series. Forgettable.
Jose Molina: Will have cycle changes through series, with downward trends. Doesn’t appear motivated or able to call the proper pitches this series. Best to use late in series.
Jorge Posada: Will be weak physically this series. All else is greatly changeable.

INFIELD
Robinson Cano: Triple positive early in series. Emotions will get negative as series runs longer but all else is fine. He will be counted on for being very athletic and focused throughout.
Hairston: Starts series triple negative and therefore a non-factor but gets a lot stronger toward games 6 and 7 if we get that far. 
Derek Jeter will be a great asset emotionally and mentally. Physically starts good but will weaken. Secondary cycles are very strong throughout series.
A-Rod will be best mentally here with other cycles picking up speed later in series. Also will be counted upon for his mastery in games 6 and 7 and should finish very strongly.
Texeira starts off on triple positive, but will weaken physically and in chemistry. Focus will remain strong and will see him through.

OUTFIELD
Melky Cabrera is strongest mentally this series but other cycles will change a lot. Probably best for games 3 through 5.
Johnny Damon starts triple positive but weakens during series. Secondary cycles do an about-face as well. Probably best early in series.
Gardner has changeable cycles but downward and negative trends…his focus and athleticism will grow deeper into series but I do not see him being a good factor at all.
Freddy Guzman’s cycles also change a lot this series. His passion and drive will be his best asset throughout and probably most valuable in games 3 through 5.
Nick Swisher starts triple positive but will weaken during series,…in fact his trend resembles Johnny Damon’s….except that he will make better decisions.

Matsui’s cycles are volatile here, but generally will be negative mentally…Cannot be counted upon this series in general.

Overall trend suggests a real drop in the emotional cycles as the series gets longer, which does not bode well for the Yankees. Mentally also seems to take a hit, but not outright negative.

Players to count upon for the series are Burnett, Marte, Cano, Jeter, A-Rod, Texeira, Cabera, Damon, and Swisher.

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Sep
29th
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Sep
21st
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Sep
14th
Mon
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