dan herman's stat blog. RSS

Proud to be Tumblrblog number one one one zero two two. Beyond my work in internet radio/podcast, I have an assortment of outside interests. These include horse racing, youtube videos, photos of events I attend, audio feeds from my radio show and field recordings) and more. Mainly I'd like to focus on scientific explanations of events through biorhythms and other formulas. Biorhythms measure potential in various life-cycles. All charts generated through the free service by www.facade.com cblue456@optonline.net

Dan

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hollywood park wrap up:

Hit the dime super once again: $39.40 was the payoff.
Also hit with the #8 $10 show bet, earning me $13

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Hollywood Park picks..Sunday. race 10

Only hit one, but it was the big one….the superfecta! Finish was 3-1-4-2
I earned $76.45….much thanks to #1 that I didn’t wager on but sneaked in as the big longshot.
See…this is why I love this wager. Lots of combos irregardless of math odds, lots of ways to score the big one.

Final race of the meet..race 10:
I have to go once more to my somewhat blind jockey/trainer facts and figures stats to figure contenders. I see it as 5-12-1-8. Public somewhat agrees and likes 12-8-7 as top 3.
#5 $3 win, $4 place
#1 $8 show
#8 $10 show
Very hesistant to play dime super but gonna go for it
5-12-1-8,   5-12-1-8, 5-12-1-8,  all
5-12-1-8,  5-12-1-8,  all, 5-12-1-8
5-12-1-8, all, 5-12-1-8, 5-12-1-8
all, 5-12-1-8, 5-12-1-8, 5-12-1-8 
$16.80 out for that.
exacta: 5-12, 5-1, 1-5  $6 total
$47.80 wagered.

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Hollywood Park picks..Sunday. race 9

That’s more like it! Came out 1-8-4-5..good enough for me to hit anther dime super!
Super paid me $48.60. Not bad at all.
#4 paid off for me for $9.60.

Did not hit the other wagers.

Race 9 is the big stakes race….I see it as 3-4-2-5. Will try the dime super again, why the heck not? Lots of value underneath #3 the public choice.  #3 is a graded stakes winner. Also is best at the race distance,and has been working out very well. #4 is a very close 2nd, being the fastest horse in the field, and is best on the all-weather track as well. #2 has the best jockey-trainer connection, and #5 is best of the rest, who is also the best performer at Hollywood. No one else seems to be a true contender.
#2 $4 show
also #2 $2 across the board

#5 $10 show I think.
Dime super:
3425 3425 3425 all
3425 3425 all 3425
3425 all 3425 3425
all 3425 3425 3425   $16.80
exacta: 4-3, 3-2, 2-3  $2 each
total wager 42.80

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Hollywood Park picks..Sunday. race 8

Scored the dime super, with longshot of the field #6 failing to get into the money.
#7 paid me $10.40
Superfecta paid only $13.31 thanks to the absence of #6.
Total payoff $23.71…slight loss on this race.

Race 8:
Public likes 1-8-7-6. I see it as 7-8-4-5. Here’s why: 7 is best at the distance, plus best showing at Hollywood of these horses, likewise best of these on the all-weather track. #8 is the fastest of the field. #4 i like for its workout regimen. #5 is the best of the rest.
#4 $5 show (2nd horse of 2 horse parlay)
Yup, going with the dime super again:
7845 7845 7845 all
7845 7845 all 7845
7845 all 7845 7845
all 7845 7845 7845  = $16.80
#7 $3 win, $4 place
#5 $10 show
exacta: 7-8, 8-7, 7-4, 4-7  $2 each
total wager $41.80

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Hollywood Park picks..Sunday. race 7

Skipped the dime super, assuming a modest price…but it paid $867! yikes. Oh well.
I did get $23 for the show wager on #7…
Dang, still kicking myself.

Race 7 has a tasty collection of value here. public likes 4-3-7-8 My contenders in order are 4-6-7-2. #4 is big favorite on many factors. #6 is the class of the field and best jockey/trainer winning combo. #7 has shown best workout runs.  Best of the rest is #2 given similar jockey/trainer angle.
#7 $8 show
#2 $11 show (pocketing $12 from the first half of this 2-horse parlay)
superfecta, dime:
4672  4672 4672 all
4672 4672 all 4672
4672 all 4672 4672 
all 4672 4672 4672
=$16.80
exacta: 4-6, 6-4, 7-4  $2 each
total wager $30.80

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Hollywood Park picks..Sunday. race 6

Got back $14.40 for my show wager on #8, completing 2-horse parlay….and $13.40 for the across the board bet on #4…

Race 6 is focused on the past performances this time…and feeling good about these choices.
Contenders are 4-1-8-7. #4 is class of the field  and has best jockey/trainer win % of these. #1 has had best workout runs. #8 is the fastest horse of the field. #7 is my usual 4th-choice ‘flyer’….best of the rest of these with a very good jockey/trainer win %, albeit on a smaller sample of races combined. 6 of the 9 horses in the field have a chance of winning. Public seems to like 8-4-9 as top 3.
The bet:
#7 $10 show
#1 $6 place
exacta: 4-1, 1-4, $2 each.

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Hollywood Park picks..Sunday. race 5

Another wasted effort…got back $18 from the show bet on #3

Race 5, more guessing but hopefully more intelligent this time.
No real value among these so will skip dime super here.
#2 $8 show
#8 $9 show (taking half of the winnings from race 4 and reinvesting as part of my 2-horse show parlay)
exacta 5-4, 2-4  $2 each
#4 $2 across the board
total wager: 18


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Hollywood Park picks..Sunday. race 4

Wow…woulda hit the dime super if i played it..but only for a very tiny profit. Which is why I didn’t bother.  I did hit the show wager on #2, completing the 2 race parlay….returning $15.20.

Race 4 i’m back to jockey/trainer angles alone…here’s how I  see it:Getting good value on top 4 contenders and will do exacta and dime super.
8743 with 8743 with 8743 with all
8743 with 8743 with all with 8743
8743 with all with 8743 with 8743
all with 8743 with 8743 with 8743
$16.80 right there.
#8 $4 win, $5 place
#4 $4 show…and
#3 $10 show
#4 $2 across the board.
exacta: 8-7, 7-8, 8-4, 4-8.
$53.80 wagered on this race alone.

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Hollywood Park picks..Sunday. race 3

Well after all of that..with $39.80 wagered…only #4 hit for me..paying off $17 on the $10 show bet.  Deficit now at $41.80

Race 3 is the first of 5 races I can actually refer to free past performances for some real hardcore study. Liking 7-6-5-2 as the top 4 contenders. #7 with great jockey/trainer strengths and is fastest horse of these, plus fastest at this track. #6 also great jockey/trainer combo here and has best collection of workouts in this field.
Both early on seem to be the public favorites, so no value there. Skipping dime super for this race.
Will pocket $9 of the winning show wager in race 2 and parlay $8 on #2 to show.
Also $8 to show on #5
and….
exacta 5-7 $2
Total wager: $10

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Hollywood Park picks..Sunday. race 2

In deficit $19 as I got shut out of the mutuel picks in race 1. Worked on jockey/trainer angles for that one only…ditto for races 2, 4, 5 and 10.
So on to race 2….seeing a definite dime super play on this.
#5184 with 5184 with 5184 with all
5184 with 5184 with all with 5184
5184 with all with 5184 with 5184
all with 5184 with 5184 with 5184
$16.80
and…..
#5, $2 win, $3 place
#4 $10 show
oh and an exacta too:
5-1, 5-8, 1-5, 8-5  $2 each

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Hollywood Park picks..Sunday. race 1

Doing something different and providing some near real-time horse handicapping and picks. Using free past performances (I’m cheap sometimes), and relying on facts/figures re jockey/trainer when not available.
Typically these days I’ll play either 2 race mutuel parlays on place and show bets, or a dime superfecta.

Race 1 wager looks like
#6 $4 win $5 place, #1 $10 show. Odds too low across the 6-horse field to make a superfecta pay, tho the odds-on fave I have for 3rd-best.

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