January 2012
4 posts
Kentucky Derby 2012 contender update, Fair Grounds...
New contenders: ECABRONI 2-1-1-0 32k (Castelloni-Pletcher) Won a MSW at Gulfstream 1/14/12
Z ROCKSTAR 6-1-2-2 $46 (Quinonez-von Hemel) 2nd in allowance race at Oaklawn, 1/16/12
ENTRIES: APPLAUDING races in the Silverbulletday Stakes at Fair Grounds on 1/21 CONGENIAL is in a MSW at Fair Grounds, same card. CANIGOTOO entered in the Groovy Stakes at Sam Houston on 1/21. WAGER UPDATE:...
Kentucky Derby 2012 contender update
3 new contenders bring my list to 40. The Kentucky Derby nominations will change this list to a degree.
None of the horses listed have entries in race immediately.
Listed are horse name, starts-win-place-show, lifetime earnings, jockey-trainer based on last start.
New to the list: CONSULADO 2-1-1-0 42k (Flores-Puype) won a MSW race at Santa Anita 1/7/12 HARD FACTS 2-1-0-0 17k ...
my mythical baseball hall of fame ballot
Time to look at this year’s HOF ballot to see if I can pick a few winners. Most experts expect one, and only one, name to pass muster and join Ron Santo. Santo was not in my consideration for the Golden Era; Kaat and Tiant were much more HOF-worthy than Santo, but it’s still a good story. What I did was take cues from www.baseball-reference.com and list the top 10 of players on...
Santa Anita selections 1/7/12
Still no new contenders to add to last week’s revised 37 in all.
ROCK HARDER finished 3rd at Fair Grounds to Capetown Devil and Gowhereyougaze. The race was anything but a solid betting selection. I had 5 in the win column but none hit. Capetown Devil was my pick for show should the odds point in the proper direction. It didn’t, so no mythical wager there. SUNS OUT GUNS OUT...
December 2011
3 posts
2 Kentucky Derby contenders active and running this afternoon: ROCK HARDER is one of 12 in a $50k OC race at Fair Grounds. This colt of Rock Hard Ten comes in with 4 lifetime starts; his last race was a win at Fair Grounds at the same distance. That race saw him go wide in the turns and drew away in the stretch, winning by 7. Switches to Robby Albarado, who rode this horse well in the stretch 2...
Kentucky Derby 2012 contender update:
I’m down now to 37 contenders for the KY Derby. Once the early nominations for the big race are in, I’ll change this list to fit all those nominations. No one new to add since the last update. Here is the current list. BIG BLUE NATION 2-1-0-1 60k (R.Dominquez-Pletcher) BLACK RHINO 4-1-1-1 63k (J.Sanchez-Ward) CANIGOTOO 5-2-1-0 43k (MC Berry-Calhoun)...
Kentucky Derby 2012 contender update:
Returning to the KY Derby 2012 blog series here with an updated list of my contenders. If you’re new to this, I regularly examine the Wynn Las Vegas sportsbook to see the odds on next year’s runners and who are officially up for betting. Not that I will bet this early, mind you. You’ll recall my last minute $2 win bet on Animal Kingdom in Pool 3 in early April! In 2012, I...
November 2011
8 posts
Radio Crystal Blue 11/20/11 →
Radio Crystal Blue 11/20/11 By dan herman Genre: freeform indie podcast Tags: Dan Herman, freeform podcast, freeform radio, indie podcast, Radio Crystal Blue Download : MP3 Audio
Radio Crystal Blue 11/13/11 →
Radio Crystal Blue 11/13/11 By dan herman Genre: freeform indie podcast Tags: Dan Herman, freeform podcast, freeform radio, indie podcast, Radio Crystal Blue Download : MP3 Audio
Pacquiao v Marquez in biorhythms
Here’s Pac-Man’s chart:
Generally positive for Manny. Feeling and behaving like a superhero but without the power. Now for Juan Manuel Marquez:
Marquez comes out of a brief triple low with a growing physical strength. Doesn’t seem willing to go the distance.
Manny’s got a better overall constitution entering the fight, and appears to have more of a killer...
Radio Crystal Blue 11/6/11 →
Radio Crystal Blue 11/6/11 By dan herman Genre: freeform indie podcast Tags: Dan Herman, freeform podcast, freeform radio, indie podcast, Radio Crystal Blue Download : MP3 Audio
2011 Breeders Cup day 2 updated picks
These notes go hand-in-hand with my earlier selections for day 2; here I add ATB and show parlay selections..These 2 sets of selections, as explained prior, are conditional…all changes depending on the odds nearing post time. BC MARATHON win/exacta: 3,6,7,8 ATB: 1,4,6 show (these are parlays): 1,4,5,6, (9 if track still ‘good’) JUV TURF win/ex: 4,5,6,7,10 ATB: 15 show:...
Breeders Cup 11/4/11 wagers (at first glance)
Having had a look at scratches and changes, here’s my updated look at which horses I am likely to back for Friday’s BC races Win bets on horses 6-1 or worse Exactas with any combo outside of picking 2 favorites Across the board I will choose 1 horse with odds worse than 10-1, usually a horse I’m keying in all wagers 2-race show parlay with keyed horses if (1) I feel I can...
Breeders Cup day 2 11/5/11
Couldn’t wait to get this work done so I could have a clear head for the day’s handicapping. Horses with ** are 6-1 or better in the morning-line. *** MARATHON Using a different source for material for this race and the BC TURF, I don’t have access to all the variables I normally use. Here are my choices thus far for win/exacta 6 Brigantin 8 Afleet Again 7...
Breeders Cup 10/4/11 race analyses
Time to get focused on this year’s Breeders Cup races, all 15 (!) of them. I’ve tweaked my 2 systems a bit, using primary and composite pairs of variables to come up with some interesting ways to look at pace and form. Borrowing ideas from author Dave Litfin’s material and my own weather-beaten ideas, here’s my analysis of the 6 races on Friday making up day 1 of the...
October 2011
11 posts
Radio Crystal Blue 10/23/11 →
Radio Crystal Blue 10/23/11 By dan herman Genre: freeform indie podcast Tags: Dan Herman, freeform podcast, freeform radio, indie podcast, Radio Crystal Blue Download : MP3 Audio
Catherine MacLellan interview 10/24/11 →
Radio Crystal Blue 10/16/11 →
Radio Crystal Blue 10/16/11 By dan herman Genre: freeform indie podcast Tags: Dan Herman, freeform podcast, freeform radio, indie podcast, Radio Crystal Blue Download : MP3 Audio
Keeneland 75th Anni Stakes analysis
While I tweak a new wagering line, a look at 2YO hopefuls in this stakes race. One of them is one of my KY Derby ‘12 contenders, Canigotoo. #1 D’Wildcat Road is one of 4 horses to excel in their general post position area. Trainer John Dyer has 7.91 ROI on all-weather surfaces this year. This sprinter possibly could bounce, having run an 85 after a 67 Equibase speed rating. #2...
Kentucky Derby '12 contender update
Howdy! In what’s becoming a dedicated weekly update, here’s a roundup of who my contenders are as selected on 9/17/11, with current Vegas odds, starts plus W-P-S results and $ earned. These are entered in alpha order. I chose these contenders based on comparative chef-de-race numbers that best fit winners at Chirchill Downs: BIG BLUE NATION 100-1 2-1-0-1 $60k BLACK RHINO ...
Radio Crystal Blue 10/9/11 →
Radio Crystal Blue 10/9/11 By dan herman Genre: freeform indie podcast Tags: Dan Herman, freeform podcast, freeform radio, indie podcast, Radio Crystal Blue Download : MP3 Audio
Belmont Park selections races 1-3 10/8/11
For my top-4 selections in the remaining races plus mythical wagers, follow me on twitter: @radiocblue race 1: 3-1*-6 4 race 2: 6*-9*-3-5 race 3: 2*-8-12*-4
Belmont Park win/exacta analysis 10/8/11
Quickly giving you these selections and caveats before I fully analyse and give top-4 selections for these races. Skipping races 7 and 9 as I see no viable horse in oustanding form to wager. SPEIGHTSCITY in the Champagne, race 9, is a scratch. I’ll root in my heart for POWER WORLD but will not choose this, nor wager this race. Both horses, you’ll recall, are 2 of my KY Derby...
KY Derby 2012 update
2 new contenders have emerged for next year’s Derby, bringing our current total to 20 RESTITUTION has one start, unplaced $1k earnings. Smart Strike colt out of a Deputy Minister mare. Decent workout on 7/24 SISTER MOON in her debut race, sets a new track record for 5.5 furlongs at Del Mar 8/21/11 $37 earnings WORKS BIG BLUE NATION with good 5f workout 9/26 at Saratoga POWER ...
Radio Crystal Blue 10/2/11 →
Radio Crystal Blue 10/2/11 By Dan Herman Genre: freeform indie podcast Tags: Dan Herman, freeform radio, Radio Crystal Blue Download : MP3 Audio
Radio Crystal Blue is…
Katie Barbato "All Of The World" →
September 2011
7 posts
short analysis of Belmont's Super Saturday 10/1/11
Dropping up to $100 on the 11 race card to see where it is. Being mindful of my $ I am limiting myself to one day a month and even limiting my loss and gain margin. I’ll play with some of my profit but only to a point. After this, I hibernate until BC Weekend. Completed a new wagering line that opened my eyes a bit wider to certain variables, and closing off unreliable ones Seems that...
Radio Crystal Blue 9/25/11 →
Radio Crystal Blue 9/25/11 By dan herman Genre: freeform indie podcast Tags: Dan Herman, freeform podcast, freeform radio, indie podcast, Radio Crystal Blue Download : MP3 Audio
Kentucky Derby 2012 update
Time to see how our Original 16 Contenders are doing. TRITAP(225-1) finished 2nd in his 2nd lifetime start, an MSW at Monmouth 9/24. He had been the sharp ML fave and ran as expected. No big surprise he was 2nd, which should him make him more of a contender next around. Earnings now $11k. My tweet about TRITAP suggested a 2nd or 3rd place at best. (@radiocblue for more) Jennie Rees blogs...
Radio Crystal Blue Novus Ordo 9/11/11 →
Radio Crystal Blue Novus Ordo 9/18/11 By dan herman Genre: freeform indie podcast Tags: Dan Herman, freeform podcast, freeform radio, indie podcast, Radio Crystal Blue Download :
Kentucky Derby 2012 thoughts ..examining 2YO...
Just had a gander at Wynn Las Vegas’s latest odds for their list of contenders. They added 6 horses to the list but there were some that escaped my watch as well. No real impact was made when comparing the newcomers to the sixteen I cited as contenders for next year’s Run For The Roses (see previous relevant post). I do have some updates of a few: CANIGOTOO (holding at 500-1) has...
#Mayweather v. #Ortiz via biorhythms
Tonight’s match takes place on Mayweather’s turf, Las Vegas, for Ortiz’s WBC welterweight title. First we look at Mayweather’s biorhythms:
Doesn’t look good for “Money”….might be on the upswing in terms of being willing to continue through 12 rounds but don’t expect a miracle. Weak punching power, approaching triple low in cycles. Now for...
Kentucky Derby 2012 thoughts via chef-de-race...
Can’t believe it. I’m actually looking ahead to 2012. When you last heard from me, I was basking in the glow of scoring a Pool 3 victory in my maiden KY Future pool bet. I had narrowed the pool down to 3 horses, put $2 to win on each, and nervously watched for Animal Kingdom among other win/exacta bets. I had the edge at post time as pool 3 closed paying 30-1. I had also considered...
August 2011
1 post
Radio Crystal Blue Novus Ordo 7/31/11 →
Radio Crystal Blue Novus Ordo 7/31/11 By Dan Herman Genre: freeform indie podcast Tags: Dan Herman, freeform podcast, freeform radio, internet podcast, Radio Crystal Blue Download :
July 2011
8 posts
Radio Crystal Blue 7/24/11 →
Radio Crystal Blue 7/24/11 audio/links By Dan Herman Genre: freeform indie podcast Tags: Dan Herman, freeform podcast, freeform radio, internet podcast, Radio Crystal Blue Download :…
Khan v. Judah via biorhythms
Looking first at Judah’s cycles
Weak punching power but will connect the right blows. As for Khan:
Coming out of a double critical with decidedly more power to his punch, Khan proves to have much more stamina and on the rise. Khan in a late round KO.
Radio Crystal Blue 7/17/11 →
Radio Crystal Blue 7/17/11 By Dan Herman Genre: freeform indie podcast Tags: Dan Herman, freeform podcast, freeform radio, internet podcast, Radio Crystal Blue Download : MP3…
Radio Crystal Blue 7/10/11 →
Radio Crystal Blue 7/10/11 By Dan Herman Genre: freeform indie podcast Tags: Dan Herman, freeform podcast, freeform radio, internet podcast, Radio Crystal Blue Download : MP3…
2011 Home Run Derby via biorhythms
Jose Bautista is on the upswing but will struggle mainly:
Robbie Cano will prevail by sheer force and focus but may flame out:
Prince Fielder will be off kilter. Not much power foreseen Can’t fault his passion tho and might sneak into round 2
Adrian Gonzalez will be at near peak form physically. Only question is whether he will keep to a good streak.
Matt Holliday is on the...
Mikey Welsh interview →
Radio Crystal Blue 7/3/11 →
Radio Crystal Blue 7/3/11 By Dan Herman Genre: freeform indie podcast Tags: Dan Herman, freeform podcast, freeform radio, internet podcast, Radio Crystal Blue Download : MP3…
Arthur Nasson interview 6/25/11 →
June 2011
6 posts
Radio Crystal Blue 6/26/11 →
Radio Crystal Blue 6/26/11 audio/links By Dan Herman Genre: freeform indie podcast Tags: Dan Herman, freeform podcast, freeform radio, internet podcast, Radio Crystal Blue Download :…
Radio Crystal Blue 6/19/11 →
Radio Crystal Blue 6/19/11 audio By Dan Herman Genre: freeform indie podcast Tags: Dan Herman, freeform podcast, freeform radio, internet podcast, Radio Crystal Blue Download : …
Rory McElroy biorhythms.....
Rory at the top of his game but I wouldn’t put stock in his putting considering his Wisdom line is downwardly trending.
UFC 131 title pick: Dos Santos v Carwin
Once again taking a biorhythmic look into 2 title fighters: Dos Santos:
Not good at all for dos Santos…lacks punching power, motivation and is gonna be totally oft kilter in throwing the right punches and holds.. Here’s Carwin:
It’s like night and day With Carwin peaking emotionally and mentally, even if he does lack punching power, his decision-making will see him...
2011 Belmont stakes analysis
Before I get deep into the analysis I should start with this: I’ve completed a 4 week study, totally devised by yours truly, in which I established a proper betting line on 2 fronts. The first one combines my analysis of nearly 20 variables related to form, the second combining all favorites, personal contenders and selected form categories. Having completed the study I’ve come to some...
Radio Crystal Blue 5/29/11 →
Radio Crystal Blue 5/29/11 By Dan Herman Genre: freeform indie podcast Tags: Dan Herman, freeform podcast, freeform radio, internet podcast, Radio Crystal Blue Download : MP3…
May 2011
41 posts
Radio Crystal Blue 5/22/11 →
Radio Crystal Blue 5/22/11 By Dan Herman Genre: freeform indie podcast Tags: Dan Herman, freeform podcast, freeform radio, internet podcast, Radio Crystal Blue Download : MP3…
2011 Preakness selections
Been a rather tough day at the track. Hit 2 exactas and just not much else. Running a deficit as the Preakness itself approaches. Here’s how I’m very likely to wager My top 4: 13-4-8-10 (Concealed Identity-Flashpoint-Dance City-Dialed In) win bets on 4, 8 13 across the board exactas: 10 4 10 8 11 4 11 8 13 4 4 13 13 8 ...